French election thoughts

I’ve had time only to make a brief outline of my thoughts on a Russia intervention in the French election. I think it is more likely than not.

I apologise for the extremely sparse nature of this post. I want to get something posted and simply don’t have the time to arrange my thoughts and write a longer piece.

1. Macron v Le Pen
2. Russia does not want macron
3. Russia has back le pen before
4. Will Russia interfere in the election?
   1. More likely than not
5. Pros:
   1. If they were going, to then preparations started long ago
   2. Those preparations have been interrupted by the war, but still.. this is not a last minute thing
   3. Last time they had only a few short months to work with. This time they had years.
      1. Ukraine is an example of how they can rapidly exploit access they’ve developed over years.
   4. The resource requirement is not that expensive, so maybe run ops because they’re almost cost free and any payoff is massively useful.
   5. This time Le pen has a serious chance to win
      1. That would be an incalculable benefit to Putin. Le pen is:
         1. Against war in Ukraine,
         2. Pro Russia
         3. Not strong on NATO
            1. Combined with Germany waffling, that would make France/Germany lukewarm on helping Ukraine.
   6. The struggle is between democracy and authoritarianism. Putin and Le pen are authoritarians.
   7. Theoretically, it would just be normal infowar, nothing special or exceptional… and no matter what Putin still has nukes. Plus. Russia can’t really get much more sanctioned.
6. Cons:
   1. Resource costs, but
   2. Distraction in the middle of a war that really could use more TLC
   3. Escalatory
   4. Unknown what it would actually do to improve the odds of le Pen.

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