Collected in one place
On October 7th 2016 the US Intelligence Community made a strong statement attributing hacks, leaks, and various attribution fronts where the actions of Russian intelligence. They stated that the purpose of the hacks was to collect data, and the purpose of the leaks is to influence the US election.
Statement From US Intelligence
The U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) is confident that the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of e-mails from US persons and institutions, including from US political organizations. The recent disclosures of alleged hacked e-mails on sites like DCLeaks.com and WikiLeaks and by the Guccifer 2.0 online persona are consistent with the methods and motivations of Russian-directed efforts. These thefts and disclosures are intended to interfere with the US election process. — Source
A number of people have complained about the lack of US IC evidence to support this claim. The US IC does not make public attribution claims lightly. This is only the fourth time they have done so. The do not accuse nuclear powers of interfering in the general election because of what they read in the morning horoscope. It is a safe assumption that there is evidence that was used to back up this statement, even if we, the public, do not get to see it.
Fortunately, though, there is a large amount of public data and evidence which does provide weight to back up the ODNI statement.
https://twitter.com/josephfcox/status/785046537210585088
OSINT Evidence Available
There is plenty of open source intelligence available which shows that there is sufficient evidence to support the claim that Guccifer 2.0 is an attribution front for Russian intelligence services. One may examine the evidence and decide that it is not sufficient, but to ignore it, or state that it doesn’t exist, reveals more about the correspondent than the evidence.
Evidence from News Media
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
Indirect Evidence via News Media
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
Evidence from Threat Intelligence Companies
Threat Connect shows the reuse of Russian infrastructure for the DCCC hack (from which data was stolen, altered, and then released by Guccifer 2.0.) ThreatConnect made a number of different posts linking Guccifer 2.0 to Russia:
- A detailed ACH analysis shows that Guccifer 2.0 is not a good fit for a hacktivist, but is a good fit for an attribution front
- Guccifer 2.0 does not talk like someone who is technically competent with cyber security
- Infrastructure reuse
And of course, there are the original CrowdStrike attribution of the DNC (and later DCCC) hacks to Russian APT groups:
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
Early Analysis
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
Evidence from the Russians
."Is who did it that important?"
Putin's response to the US statement on Russia hacking the election is stunning https://t.co/wdOOYnsLsy pic.twitter.com/mIPCExoero
— Thomas Rid (@RidT) October 14, 2016
.Read the transcript, then watch the 4m video—esp end. Thanks @LincolnPigman for the translation cc @andrewsweiss https://t.co/AGc2wAXc48
— Thomas Rid (@RidT) October 14, 2016
Collections
There is a nice narrative structure fitting everything into a timeline, collecting evidence into a central location.
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
And Bruce Schneier put together a collection of links to data back in July.
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
Hard to ignore
There is a large volume of data all pointing the same way. The data is consistent, and there have been no plausible or viable alternative hypothesis that fits the available public facts. This makes for a fairly good case. One that is, at the very least, hard to ignore. Certainly one that cannot be dismissed as “without evidence.”
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